Despite how straightforward the Pittsburgh Penguins and Tampa Bay Lightning have made it look within the final decade, profitable back-to-back Stanley Cup titles is extraordinarily tough. Can the Colorado Avalanche be part of these groups by defending their title this season?
Teams do not typically cruise to a Stanley Cup the way in which the Avalanche did within the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Colorado swept two completely different opponents and went 16-4 en path to hoisting the Cup. It shall be a more durable journey for the Avs in 2023. A couple of key gamers from final season’s group are actually carrying completely different jerseys, and Colorado has confronted harm points all yr.
On prime of that, the competitors is notably more durable.
The Oilers are a greater group than they had been heading into the playoffs final season, and the Los Angeles Kings and Vegas Golden Knights look like professional Cup contenders as effectively.
In order to look at the Avs’ probabilities of repeating, let’s check out how this group stacks as much as final season’s and what its path to the Stanley Cup would possibly appear to be.
The Team
The Avalanche had been head and shoulders above their competitors from wire to wire within the 2021-22 season. That has not been the case this season. Other Western Conference groups have closed the hole — Colorado might end as little as third in its personal division, relying upon how the subsequent week performs out.
While this yr’s Avalanche squad remains to be one of many easiest within the NHL, it hasn’t regarded as impenetrable. Here’s how the present Avs stack up in opposition to the 2022 Stanley Cup champions at the very same level within the season proper now, by means of 76 video games performed.
2022-23 Avalanche
2021-22 Avalanche
Record
46-24-6 (98 factors)
55-15-6 (116 factors)
Goals
250
292
Goals Against
207
208
5-on-5 xG Share
51.5%
52.3%
Save proportion
91.3%
91.5%
Power Play
25.0%
25.8%
Penalty Kill
79.0%
78.9%
As you possibly can see, a evident distinction is within the goal-scoring division. That is, at the least partially, resulting from the truth that Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin have all missed a while in 2022-23.
But it can be attributed to offseason departures. Nazem Kadri and Andre Burakovsky mixed for 50 objectives final season, and each of these gamers are actually on completely different groups. Kadri left a gap on the second-line heart place that Colorado has had hassle filling. J.T. Compher hasn’t precisely been in a position to totally replicate Kadri’s manufacturing, and whereas the Avs did purchase Lars Eller from the Washington Capitals on the commerce deadline, the group’s heart depth is simply not as robust because it was final season.
Still, the core items of the blue line are all again this postseason. Cale Makar is having one other robust season after taking dwelling the Norris Trophy and Conn Smythe Trophy, and Devon Toews stays some of the underrated defensemen within the league. Add in gamers like Bowen Byram and Sam Girard, and Colorado the championship-caliber defensive corps are in place
Alexandar Georgiev has taken Darcy Kuemper’s place in internet, and there was no drop-off when it comes to outcomes. Georgiev has saved 24.61 objectives above common this season, per Natural Stat Trick, which is true on par with Kuemper’s 25.19 objectives saved above common final yr. Let’s not overlook: Kuemper truly struggled fairly a bit within the 2022 playoffs. He allowed 4.27 objectives above common and posted a pedestrian save proportion of 90.2%, per Natural Stat Trick. Colorado was in a position to overcome that and did so with ease, however attempting to win two straight Stanley Cups with mediocre goaltending appears borderline unattainable.
If Georgiev can merely give this Avalanche group barely above common goaltending within the playoffs, they’re going to be in good condition, however it’s value noting that his subsequent postseason begin shall be his first. He must be thought of a query mark for Colorado. So whereas the 2022-23 Avs is probably not as loaded as they had been final season, the roster nonetheless has all of the substances to win a Cup.
The Path
The Avalanche took benefit of some favorable matchups final postseason.
First spherical: Nashville Predators (4-0) — The Preds misplaced star goaltender Juuse Saros proper earlier than the playoffs.Second spherical: St. Louis Blues (4-2) — The Blues had been extra of a take a look at, however the Avs outplayed them for a overwhelming majority of the sequence.Conference finals: Edmonton Oilers (4-0) — This was a enjoyable sequence, however Colorado took management with a shutout win in Game 2 and by no means regarded again.Stanley Cup Final: Tampa Bay Lightning (4-2)
Colorado’s greatest take a look at got here within the Cup Final in opposition to the defending champion Lightning, and the 2 juggernauts supplied some thrilling hockey. The Avs received in six video games, however two of their wins got here in additional time, in order that sequence actually might have swung both manner.
Looking on the Western Conference proper now, it is easy to see why the Avalanche would possibly face some taller hurdles on their approach to the 2023 Stanley Cup Final. The first-round matchups are removed from set, however regardless of who the Avalanche face, it is going to be a stronger opponent than final yr’s Predators group. The Dallas Stars have elite offensive gamers and a very good goaltender, the Minnesota Wild are one of many stingiest groups within the NHL and the Seattle Kraken have confirmed themselves to be a whole group. The Avs would in all probability be favorites in a seven-game sequence in opposition to any of these groups, however it would not be stunning to see them lose.
If the Avalanche do get out of the Central Division portion of the bracket and attain the Western Conference Final once more, it is going to be in opposition to a bona fide Stanley Cup contender:
Last season’s convention finals opponent, the Oilers, are an improved bunch in 2022-23. Connor McDavid has by some means managed to raise his recreation, Leon Draisaitl has scored 50 objectives (once more) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are additionally within the midst of massive seasons. The addition of Mattias Ekholm forward of the commerce deadline has made the blue line a lot stronger, and I’m prepared to imagine that Stuart Skinner is able to making a couple of extra saves than Mike Smith.The Los Angeles Kings, who pushed the Oilers to seven video games within the first spherical final season, have performed some upgrading of their very own. They have a dynamic ahead in Kevin Fiala, play robust group protection, and the goaltending duo of Joonas Korpisalo and Pheonix Copley has labored out to this point. If the Kings’ goaltending continues to carry up, they might give the Avs a superb struggle.Finally, we have now the present No. 1 group within the Western Conference, the Vegas Golden Knights, who’ve bounced again below first-year head coach Bruce Cassidy. Jack Eichel has been totally wholesome, and Vegas boasts one of many deeper rosters within the convention. As with the Kings, goaltending could possibly be a problem, however the Golden Knights have the expertise to match up with Colorado in a playoff sequence.
Oh, and the Eastern Conference boasts six critical championship contenders, and whichever group emerges from that aspect of the bracket shall be battle-tested. In reality, the Eastern Conference champion is likely to be a favourite in opposition to the Avalanche.
Last season, Colorado was a steamroller within the postseason, and that group deserves all of the credit score on the earth for making its opponents look worse than they really had been. That stated, the Avalanche must play some extra tightly-contested sequence in the event that they need to repeat as champions in 2023.
The Verdict
The Avalanche’s roster merely is not as deep because it was final season — however it’s nonetheless stuffed with among the finest gamers within the league. MacKinnon, Makar, Mikko Rantanen, Toews and Nichushkin are greater than sufficient for this group to make a deep run. Even with horrific harm luck, Colorado might nonetheless win the Central Division, and the group needs to be nearer to full well being in time for the postseason.
The larger obstacle to 2 straight Stanley Cups for the Avsis the groups standing of their manner. The Western Conference is deeper than it was in 2021-22, and there are a couple of completely different contenders within the Pacific Division. I’d be shocked to see the Avs produce two postseason sweeps in 2023.
All of this to say: the Avalanche needs to be thought of one of many favorites to win the Stanley Cup this yr… however it’s nowhere close to as clear lower because it was in 2023. Last season, you might’ve used Sharpie when advancing the Avs in your playoff bracket. A pencil is likely to be extra applicable this time round.
