Close is not shut sufficient on the NFL Draft — it is not horseshoes. It’s a painstaking analysis course of for all 32 groups, the place you virtually must take out almost all of the variables round a given prospect (program, competitors, supporting forged, and many others.), and attempt to decipher whether or not or not his collegiate success and expertise can translate within the NFL. This is an inexact science, in fact, and there are at all times diamonds within the tough that fall by means of the cracks.
Of course, Tom Brady is the best instance of this — the best quarterback of all time, being chosen No. 199 total in 2000. If anybody even had even the slightest inkling of what was to come back with Brady, he would have been off the board a lot, a lot sooner. On the alternative finish of that spectrum are the busts — these prospects who had been considered extraordinarily excessive, however failed to come back near dwelling as much as these expectations. It’s that bust class that we will dive right into a bit deeper for our dialogue right this moment.
Below, you will discover among the greatest first-round misses courting to 2000. What makes these busts even worse, is that there have been legends not solely on the board however heard their names being known as instantly after that choice. So, not solely will you see the busts, however you will additionally discover out who the star they had been chosen over was as effectively.
2020 draft: Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson
This is the latest instance we’ve on this listing and has shortly develop into one of many greater blunders in current draft reminiscence. The Philadelphia Eagles had been on the clock at No. 21 total and seeking a large receiver. There, they selected to pick out TCU move catcher Jalen Reagor, who didn’t pan out. In two seasons with Philadelphia, Reagor performed in 45 video games (24 begins) and caught 72 passes for 799 yards and 4 touchdowns. He was traded to the Vikings previous to the 2022 season and is now a mere function participant.
To make issues worse with the Eagles lacking on the first-round decide, they selected Reagor over Justin Jefferson, who went off the board instantly after Reagor did at No. 22. Jefferson has since established himself as arguably the highest broad receiver in your entire NFL. He has three straight seasons of over a 1,000 yards receiving, together with a 2022 marketing campaign through which he led the league in receptions (128) and receiving yards (1,809).
To put much more salt within the wound for Philly was the viral clip of the Vikings entrance workplace celebrating and dashing to make the Jefferson decide after the Eagles handed on him and opted for Reagor.
2007 draft: JaMarcus Russell over Calvin Johnson
It’s by no means factor when the spotlight of your professional profession is draft day, however that precisely the way it unfolded for JaMarcus Russell. The former Raiders No. 1 total decide is checked out as one of many greatest busts in NFL historical past. After he was taken with the highest spot within the 2007 NFL Draft, he lasted simply three seasons within the league. Russell appeared in 31 video games as a professional and went 7-18 in his 25 begins for Oakland. In his remaining season within the league in 2009, Russell accomplished simply 48.8% of his passes and threw simply three touchdowns together with 11 interceptions whereas the Raiders went 2-7 in his begins that 12 months. Yuck.
Meanwhile, the very subsequent decide after Russell at that draft wound as much as be Calvin Johnson, who is taken into account to be one of many best broad receivers of his period and has since been inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Over his profession, Johnson set the NFL receiving yards current for a season with 1,964 and has probably the most consecutive 100-yard receiving video games (8) in league historical past. Every which means, Megatron was a dominant power on the sphere, which the Raiders simply missed out on having. To make issues worse with this decide, legendary left sort out Joe Thomas got here off the board at No. 3 total. That means two Hall of Fame abilities had been known as proper after Russell. Ouch.
2003 draft: Jerome McDougle over Troy Polamalu
The Philadelphia Eagles traded up 15 spots to take defensive finish Jerome McDougle with the No. 15 total decide within the 2003 draft, which is a transfer they’d later come to remorse. At the time, there was the promise that the Miami product would assist the membership get after the quarterback, however that by no means got here to move. Injuries derailed McDougle’s profession and was restricted to only 37 video games all through his 4 seasons within the NFL. He solely managed three sacks and 38 tackles over that point.
The salt within the wound with this decide is that not solely did a star defensive participant come off the board proper after McDougle, however he dominated inside state strains. At No. 16, the Steelers chosen security Troy Polamalu, who spent his total 12-year Hall of Fame profession in Pittsburgh and was one of many extra dominant gamers of his day. He helped the Steelers win two Super Bowls, was an eight-time Pro Bowler, and received the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2010. He’s a member of the NFL’s 2000s All-Decade Team and was named to the Pittsburgh Steelers All-Time Team. He’ll be remembered as the most effective NFL gamers to roll by means of Pennsylvania, however that might have occurred in Eagles inexperienced had issues turned out in another way.
Adam Carriker had himself a modest NFL profession that stretched over the course of seven years the place he earned round $18.6 million. For the common dude on the road, you’d join that each day of the week. However, the previous Nebraska defensive finish did not precisely stay as much as the No. 13 total billing when the St. Louis Rams picked him again in 2007. In two seasons with the Rams, Carriker managed 55 tackles and two sacks earlier than being traded to Washington. He did put collectively a strong 2011 season the place he totaled 5.5 sacks and 33 tackles, however that flash was all we received.
What makes this draft miscue sting is that the Jets chosen legendary cornerback Darrelle Revis with the very subsequent decide. Revis developed into arguably the highest cornerback of his period and was a legit shutdown nook for New York. He spent 11 years within the league, was named to the Pro Bowl seven instances and was a four-time first-team All-Pro choice.
2002 draft: David Carr over Julius Peppers
David Carr was picked to usher in a brand new period within the NFL as he joined the brand new growth workforce within the Houston Texans. However, his arrival to Houston did not produce a ton of wins out of the gate. For his Texans tenure, Carr went 23-53 as a starter and accomplished 60% of his passes whereas averaging 176.2 yards passing per sport. Not precisely what you would be hoping for from a No. 1 total decide at quarterback, however Carr was admittedly in a troublesome place and led the league in sacks in three out of the primary 4 seasons of his profession.
Had the Texans elected to bolster their protection upon first getting into the league, they doubtless would have discovered somewhat extra success because the Carolina Panthers had been in a position to choose move rusher Julius Peppers proper after Carr. Peppers went on to have an amazing profession that wrapped up again in 2018. He was named to 9 Pro Bowls over his profession and is a member of the All-Decade Teams for each the 2000s and 2010s. Peppers additionally holds the NFL report for many compelled fumbles of all time.
2000 draft: Peter Warrick over Jamal Lewis
The Cincinnati Bengals had been hoping to get a significant increase to their offense once they chosen receiver Peter Warrick No. 4 total. However, the move catcher by no means actually lived as much as that billing. After three consecutive seasons the place Warrick hovered round 650 yards receiving, he did pop for 819 yards in 2003, however that is as prolific as he grew to become. The Florida State product was restricted to only 4 video games the next 12 months, joined the Seahawks in 2005, and was then out of the league.
While it could have been robust to think about the Bengals deciding on a operating again after already having Corey Dillon on the roster on the time, had they introduced in Jamal Lewis, they’d be one proficient backfield. Lewis was chosen proper after Warrick by the Bengals’ then-AFC Central rivals within the Baltimore Ravens. Lewis went on to be one of many higher backs in franchise historical past for the Ravens, main the league in dashing in 2003. He’s the franchise’s all-time dashing yards chief and is first in workforce historical past with 45 dashing touchdowns. To make issues worse, Lewis did play a few of his finest soccer in opposition to the Bengals, averaging 109.1 dashing yards per sport in opposition to them all through his profession on 5.2 yards per carry.
At the time Robert Gallery was drafted, the Oakland Raiders hoped they had been getting somebody who might man left sort out for them for the foreseeable future. However, the No. 2 total decide in 2004 was extensively thought of a bust at that spot earlier than discovering relative success at proper sort out and guard afterward in his profession. Instead of Gallery, the Raiders might have chosen broad receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who was picked No. 3 total by the Arizona Cardinals. Fitzgerald was one of many extra reliable and sturdy broad receivers of his period and appears effectively on his option to at some point being enshrined in Canton as a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He holds each significant receiving report in Cardinals historical past and is No. 2 all time in receiving yards, solely trailing Jerry Rice. That looks like somebody whom the Raiders — and each different workforce within the league — wish to have hooked up to their group.
You could make a case that primarily everybody within the NFL whiffed on this and never simply the Raiders, who took cornerback Fabian Washington one decide earlier than Aaron Rodgers. However, it’s kind of extra jarring when they’re stacked proper subsequent to 1 one other. Washington performed simply three seasons with the Raiders earlier than going elsewhere across the league, however by no means actually blossomed right into a first-round expertise within the secondary. Meanwhile, had the workforce drafted Rodgers they might have been in a way more advantageous place when Rich Gannon introduced his retirement later that summer time. With Kerry Collins underneath middle that following season, the Raiders went 4-12, which was one of many worst data in your entire NFL. Of course, if Rodgers was nonetheless in a position to develop into the quarterback we all know right this moment the Raiders could also be held in the identical regard as we do the Packers and presumably have a Super Bowl title to point out for it.
This is one other missed alternative by a workforce within the 2005 draft. Had the Detroit Lions elected to deal with their protection as a substitute of bringing in receiver Mike Williams at No. 10 total, they may have been a generational move rusher. Once the Lions took Williams, the Dallas Cowboys tapped exterior linebacker DeMarcus Ware at No. 11 total. Ware went on to be the most effective move rushers of his period and is Dallas’ all-time chief in sacks, compelled fumbles, tackles for a loss, and quarterback hits. He additionally helped the Denver Broncos to a Super Bowl 50 title. As for Williams, he caught simply 37 passes all through his 22 profession video games with the Lions and totaled 449 yards receiving.
2002 draft: Napoleon Harris over Ed Reed
The Raiders sadly have numerous misses on this listing. The newest is selecting linebacker Napoleon Harris No. 23 total again in 2002. The Northwestern product was productive out of the gate and even had a 2003 season the place he totaled 110 complete tackles and three compelled fumbles. However, Harris’ profession with the Raiders solely lasted three seasons after being drafted. Right behind him on draft day, the Ravens chosen security Ed Reed, who put collectively a Hall of Fame profession. Reed was one other participant who merely dominated the competitors over his time within the league and holds the Ravens franchise report in interceptions, interception return yards, and passes defended. Reed is also tied for probably the most playoff interceptions (9) in NFL historical past.
2011 draft: Jake Locker over Tyron Smith
The Titans had been coming off of the lackluster Vince Young period and had been making an attempt to once more discover a beginning quarterback within the first spherical. After Cam Newton was taken No. 1 total by Carolina, Washington’s Jake Locker was the subsequent signal-caller off the board as Tennessee chosen him with the No. 8 total decide. Unfortunately for the Titans, Locker’s tenure wasn’t precisely prolific. He accomplished simply 57.5% of his passes over his four-year NFL profession and was 9-15 within the 23 video games he began for Tennessee. In his remaining season in 2014, he misplaced the beginning job by Week 5 and would then go on to retire from NFL in March of 2015, citing that he misplaced in ardour for soccer.
While you’ll be able to by no means actually fault a workforce for taking an trustworthy swing at looking for a franchise quarterback, it does sting that stud offensive sort out Tyron Smith was scooped up by Dallas proper after Locker. Smith has been arguably the most effective tackles of his period, incomes eight Pro Bowl picks over the course of his profession together with 4 All-Pro nods. He was additionally named to the NFL 2010s All-Decade Team. While lacking out on Smith is dangerous sufficient, star move rusher J.J. Watt additionally got here off the board simply three picks after Locker.
2013 draft: Datone Jones over DeAndre Hopkins
The Green Bay Packers did have the likes of Randall Cobb, James Jones and Jordy Nelson on their roster on the time, however might you think about what Aaron Rodgers — who already had an MVP and Super Bowl title underneath his belt — would’ve been able to had he been given DeAndre Hopkins?
The present Cardinals broad receiver was taken No. 27 total by the Houston Texans in 2013, which was one decide after the Packers chosen defensive finish Datone Jones out of UCLA at No. 26. Jones by no means lived as much as his first-round billing with the Packers, solely beginning seven video games over his four-year tenure with the workforce and tallied 9 sacks.
Meanwhile, Hopkins is taken into account to be the most effective receivers within the NFL to at the present time and has six seasons the place he totaled over a 1,000 receiving yards. It needs to be famous that Green Bay did choose Davante Adams the next 12 months, however Hopkins would have been simply as prolific on this offense.
2017 draft: John Ross over Patrick Mahomes
The Bengals are sitting fairly with Joe Burrow presently on the helm at quarterback, however there may be an alternate universe the place Patrick Mahomes is QB1 in Cincinnati. At the 2017 NFL Draft, the Bengals spent the No. 9 total decide on broad receiver John Ross. Immediately following that decide was Mahomes to Kansas City the place he has since established himself as an all-time expertise with two Super Bowl rings on his finger.
Ross performed simply 4 seasons with the Bengals and solely totaled 957 yards over that stretch. His finest 12 months got here in 2019 when he caught 506 yards over eight video games, however missed time resulting from a shoulder damage.
While the Bengals did have Andy Dalton solidified as its starter on the time, there was a case to maneuver off of him at this juncture in the event that they had been daring sufficient. While he had three years left on his contract, there was no assured wage left at the moment and he was coming off a season the place he was 6-9-1 because the starter. Dalton would then go underneath .500 for the remainder of his tenure in Cincinnati and would ultimately go away the franchise following the 2019 season. Again, it might have been a daring transfer had the Bengals wager on Mahomes’ potential and ousted Dalton, however it might have paid off immensely.
