Lamar Jackson, one among two unanimous MVPs in NFL historical past (together with Tom Brady), introduced on Monday that he requested a commerce from the Ravens in early March.
You’d suppose half the league can be knocking Baltimore’s door right down to pursue arguably the best dual-threat QB in NFL historical past, who’s simply 26 years previous. Instead, we live in a bizarro world the place the one information popping out is groups basically eliminating themselves from the Jackson sweepstakes.
History has proven you want a top-10 QB to win a Super Bowl. The solely QBs to win a Super Bowl within the final 20 seasons that are not top-10 caliber (arguably) had been Nick Foles (2017 Eagles) and Joe Flacco (2012 Ravens). Both received with wild postseason heaters that had been main outliers to their profession efficiency.
Jackson is as near a positive factor as you will ever discover obtainable on the QB market. As my colleague Jeff Kerr documented this week, his first 5 seasons are stuffed with mind-blowing statistics.
Even if house owners are colluding towards Jackson, prefer it was steered by NFLPA government director DeMaurice Smith, it is shocking that extra groups aren’t keen to interrupt rank and make a profitable funding in Jackson.
After all, the Browns, most likely essentially the most QB determined franchise in current NFL historical past, invested three first-round picks and $230 million assured in Deshaun Watson.
The groups who’ve reportedly bowed out of rivalry for Jackson might not have skilled QB distress fairly just like the Browns, however definitely have query marks at QB that make their selections much more baffling.
Here’s a minimum of one reality on every of these franchise’s quarterback pasts:
The Falcons tried to commerce for Watson final yr regardless of his sexual misconduct allegations. Watson additionally tore his ACL twice since his freshman yr at Clemson.
The Panthers have the fewest landing passes (63) and most interceptions (71) of any staff within the final 4 seasons. Their beginning QBs over that span embrace Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, PJ Walker, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. They have the highest decide within the 2023 NFL Draft, most likely a greater excuse than another staff.
The Raiders changed Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo (maybe briefly), who has missed 31 video games within the final 5 seasons. Carr, the staff’s all-time passing chief, by no means received a playoff sport with the Raiders.
The Commanders often is the closest franchise to the Browns when it comes to dysfunction and quarterback desperation. Their all-time landing passes chief (Sammy Baugh) final performed in 1952. They have not made a convention championship sport for the reason that 1991 season, and have been driving the QB carousel ever since. That’s very true these days. The Commanders have had an NFL-high 12 completely different beginning QBs since Kirk Cousins signed with the Vikings within the 2018 offseason.
The Dolphins have been driving the QB carousel ever since Dan Marino retired. They have the longest energetic drought within the NFL with no Pro Bowl QB season (1995). Tua Tagovailoa was a Pro Bowl snub in 2022, but additionally suffered two documented concussions. A Jackson homecoming to south Florida may have been justified.
The 49ers had been one among six groups to make use of 4 completely different QBs final season, together with playoffs. The different 5 all misplaced 10-plus video games (Panthers, Jets, Rams, Cardinals, Bears). In different phrases, that is nonetheless a championship roster a QB away from successful a Super Bowl.
Sure, San Francisco went all in buying and selling up for Trey Lance, and Brock Purdy impressed final season, however think about Jackson with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle.
The Lions seem set with Jared Goff, who regarded like a franchise QB within the second half of 2022. But, let’s not overlook, this can be a Lions staff with one playoff win within the Super Bowl period (since 1966). Their QB for that win was Erik Kramer.
New York Jets
The Jets haven’t had a franchise QB since Joe Namath. Their solely QB with 30 landing passes in a season is Ryan Fitzpatrick. They had the worst passer ranking of any staff within the NFL final season. Aaron Rodgers turns 40 in December, so it appears silly they would not take into account a 26-year-old Jackson.
It’s onerous to poke holes within the Patriots QB historical past, however Tom Brady is not strolling via the doorways anytime quickly (a minimum of I do not suppose). “The final 25 years” is a professional purpose Patriots followers must be optimistic, however my counter to that’s this reality. The Patriots have a dropping file (43-44) below Bill Belichick with beginning QBs not named Brady
One purpose towards buying Jackson is not as convincing
There are many details and the explanation why these groups must be interested by Jackson. You may poke holes in one of many main details used to justify lack of curiosity in Jackson, highlighted by Falcons proprietor Arthur Blank:
“Looking at it objectively I’d say there’s some concern over how lengthy can he play his type of sport. Hopefully a very long time … however he is missed 5, 6 video games every of the final two years. Each sport counts lots in our enterprise.”
Blank has some extent, to an extent. Jackson’s season-ending accidents within the final two seasons are considerably of a pink flag. So is the truth that he is essentially the most hit QB within the league since he was drafted.
The largest purpose Blank’s feedback are an overreaction, although? Any potential suitor would possible be interested by signing Jackson for a deal round 5 years, or via his age-30 season. They presumably would not expect him to win Super Bowls in his 40s like Brady.
It’s utterly cheap to anticipate Jackon’s sport would age simply wonderful over the following 5 years.
Jackson has the fifth-most rush yards in NFL historical past. If you take a look at the top-10 listing all time, quarterbacks who you’d principally take into account as elite dual-threats, everybody on that listing made a Pro Bowl of their 30s apart from Cam Newton.
Michael Vick
6,109
30
Cam Newton
5,628
26
Russell Wilson
4,966
33
Randall Cunningham
4,928
35
Lamar Jackson
4,437
?
Steve Young
4,239
37
Fran Tarkenton
3,674
36
Steve McNair
3,590
32
Aaron Rodgers
3,466
38
Donovan McNabb
3,459
33
It’s much more telling while you zero in on the one 4 QBs with extra profession speeding yards than Jackson. Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Randall Cunningham. The group’s decline when it comes to begins and different manufacturing measures had been comparatively insignificant from their early 20s to late 20s, however way more noticeable of their 30s.
Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Randall Cunningham common season by age
Starts
14.3
13.1
11.2
Pass TD
19.2
21.2
17.1
INT
11.4
9.5
8.7
Rush yards
605
523
295
Pro Bowls
0.7
0.5
0.3
That should not scare away a Jackson suitor, who as soon as once more can be most involved along with his manufacturing within the subsequent 5 seasons or so. Not to say, Jackson’s sport may evolve to lean extra closely on his passing prowess if he had a real No. 1 huge receiver, one thing he is by no means had.
This proof solely makes this case extra perplexing. The pursuit of Jackson must be easy. But, apparently, it is rather, very sophisticated.
